We Break Down Trump’s Biggest Moves
The volatility that President Trump has unleashed on international markets and the broader political landscape needs no introduction. Over the last three weeks, the President has initiated aggressive trade negotiations with three of the United States’ biggest trade partners, prepared to shutter multiple federal agencies, canceled untold federal grants, and suggested that the United States should have a military presence in Gaza.
Americans are not used to such dramatic action from a presidential administration in such quick succession, but it’s important to remember this isn’t necessarily a novel concept. Republicans have been campaigning on shrinking the size and scope of the federal bureaucracy for several decades. Longtime political observers will remember Texas Governor Rick Perry’s 2011 commitment to close three federal agencies if he were elected President, Commerce, Education….and I forgot the third one….oops.
The concern among many in the political establishment is not that Republicans talk about wanting to reform the federal government. Instead, many didn’t realize how serious President Trump is about his promises. Unfortunately, the American public has become so accustomed to politicians making empty promises that many are shocked by how quickly the President is moving to enact his agenda. The reason President Trump has maintained his popularity with the American people isn’t just because of his ability to communicate, it’s also because of his commitment to serving their interests. That is why I expect this trend to continue in the short term.
With only a few short years to enact his vision for America, President Trump knows he must maintain the initiative. By 2026, timid Congressional Republicans may begin pumping the brakes as vulnerable incumbents attempt to move toward the political center. However, this is still at least a year down the road.
President Trump’s control over the Republican party seems nearly absolute. This is particularly apparent when you examine the ease with which his cabinet secretaries are cruising through the confirmation process. Even the Left’s most hated nominees, Robert Kennedy, and Tulsi Gabbard, have easily cruised through the confirmation process, leaving the President’s preferred cabinet nominees almost completely unscathed.
Kennedy’s confirmation was particularly surprising considering the reservations voiced by Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy. Cassidy is widely considered a moderate in Republican circles and has been a vocal advocate of vaccines. However, Cassidy’s support for vaccines has not made him immune to the MAGA movement sweeping through Washington. As Politico reported earlier this week, it is likely Cassidy folded on the committee vote to proceed with RFK’s nomination amid pressure regarding his upcoming reelection. Resisting President Trump’s preferred nominee would have put him at odds with a president whose endorsement is pure gold to Republicans running in the deep South.
All this is to say that political observers should take President Trump’s commitments very seriously. He is fully aware of the limited time he has to make an impact and doesn’t want to waste it equivocating.
It is worth noting that Trump is also a negotiator at heart. Anyone who has thumbed through his book, The Art of the Deal, knows that Trump’s signature move is to make bold demands to ensure that the ultimate compromise is more favorable to his position. The tariff battles with Mexico and Canada demonstrate that the President is willing to be lenient to ensure negotiations continue.
The short answer to the big question is that President Trump’s flurry of activity will continue. He has the political capital and the drive to push his agenda through. The question is, how long will it last? In 2017, Republicans passed a massive tax cut that is set to expire at the end of 2025. Trump is racing to save enough federal dollars to extend those tax cuts without busting the federal deficit or curbing popular programs like Medicare, Social Security, or veterans’ benefits. 2025 will be defined by cuts to federal programs that Trump sees as superfluous.
I’m optimistic that the perceived volatility from his administration will feel much more normal in the years to come. More importantly, it takes time for the positive effects of conservative economic policy to yield fruit. My expectation is that he will act quickly to enact these policies to give them enough time to thrive.
Things may feel jumbled now, but the Administration’s hope is that the long-term effects will be positive. The question is: who will stick by him now that he’s in charge? His core supporters are likely to stick with him during these opening chapters of his second administration. His detractors are already crying foul. Others may be tempted to abandon him now that the opening salvo has been unleashed.
I, for one, remain optimistic. Despite all the confusion surrounding Donald Trump, one thing is certain: he is bucking the norm. Over the last few decades, Americans polled have consistently indicated that they don’t think the country is on the right track. The truth is, the norm does not seem to be working for the majority of the American people. There is always a possibility of dark waters ahead, but the political norms of the 21st century have not put the United States on the path toward prosperity. I am choosing to ride this wave rather than letting it crash over me.